Newspaper analyses have shown far more Democrats than Republicans casting early votes in person, many of them African-American.

At a minimum, his speech probably showed Democrats that he had the stomach for the difficult task of self-rejuvenation.

He showed Democrats how to win again.

The vote also showed Democrats that Mr. Bush can shift the nation's course toward the right.

Mr. Reed acknowledged that polls showed Democrats with a clear edge in Congressional elections.

Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster, said his polls showed Democrats with a 15- to 25-point advantage over Republicans on the issue.

The voter surveys showed Democrats carrying the 60-and-older vote in House races from 1980 through 1992, with one exception: the Reagan landslide year of 1984.

But he said that the rule changes showed Democrats following through on an issue that helped them last fall.

The latest survey shows Democrats with a lopsided edge of 39 percent to 23 percent.

A midsummer 1978 poll had shown Democrats preferring Kennedy over Carter by a 5-to-3 margin.