"I think this is the high-water mark," contended Lacy H. Hunt, chief economist at Carroll McEntee & McGinley and a pessimistic analyst.

While today's results deepened the gloom of the more pessimistic analysts, some thought the data exaggerated the weakness in the economy.

More pessimistic analysts here say the country has lost significant strength and stature in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian areas, while Iran, with its populist, anti-American agenda, has benefited.

Lucent also sought to ease concern over its liquidity, which had been a major concern earlier this summer when some pessimistic analysts had seen the company in danger of bankruptcy.

Some pessimistic analysts chose to stress the decline in backlogs, while others saw grounds for optimism in the higher orders figures.

Now, the deficit is likely to exceed the 200 billion rubles foreseen by the most pessimistic analysts and to top 20 percent of national output.

One of the most pessimistic analysts is Neil Blackley of James Capel & Company, the brokerage.

Given the uncertainty facing WPP and the change in shareholder structure, the more pessimistic analysts recommend selling the common shares.

Indeed, with Citicorp, the nation's largest banking company, having difficulties, some pessimistic analysts said its collapse alone could overwhelm the system.

Even pessimistic analysts think that a recovery will already be under way by then.