In 1999, he predicted long-term returns of about 11 percent.

Why the long-term return is relatively constant, remains a mystery.

Both men said their systems had produced above-average long-term returns.

"Now they're recognizing that long-term returns may not be as good."

Of course, such a long-term return would still be 2.5 percentage points less than companies' current assumptions for their pension plans.

However, long-term returns would also tend to be lower than desired, which is less desirable.

But this story is also about many forces of greater interest than long-term return on an investment.

It generates a good long-term return at a minimum level of risk.

Her money earns 10.9 percent annually, the historical long-term return for stocks of large companies.

"I think you should be able to invest in yourself," the other patient said, "especially if it's going to have long-term return."