The council, he said, is organized to deal only with intermediate or long-range predictions.

Our long-range prediction (probably the least uncertain of all): The million-year-scale secular shrinkage will not be affected at all.

But the first is based on a six-year sample (since 1995), far too short to use as a basis for long-range predictions.

Herzl's long-range prediction actually became a reality a little over a half-century later.

He also made long-range predictions about pollen counts.

First is that the long-range prediction will be on target.

The region has a history of major hurricanes and tropical storms, and long-range predictions suggest that this pattern will continue.

In the meantime, Dr. Lindh said, "We are more confident that the strategy we have laid out for long-range predictions is the right strategy."

The Congressional staff acknowledged that such long-range predictions were unreliable.

Scientists probing the frontiers of climatology say their ability to make this kind of general long-range prediction should continue to improve.