The consumer confidence index also was negative in May, leading some analysts to fear that consumers, whose spending accounts for two-thirds of the nation's economic activity, were retrenching.

"We still feel the consumer must retrench," Mr. Ratajczak said at a briefing.

Though the retail sales report was a rough estimate based on a small number of respondents, analysts said it had become clear that consumers were retrenching.

"The consumer has retrenched," said Gilbert Benz, an economist with the Swiss Bank Corporation in New York.

With memories of the stock market crash still fresh, and widespread forecasts that a recession was near and consumers would retrench, few expected a good holiday season.

As the public sector and consumers retrench, business investment and exports may boom.

If consumers retrenched in earnest, a recession would be all but inevitable.

"This is confirmation that consumers certainly haven't retrenched to a serious degree," said Sandra Shaber, an economist with the Futures Group in Washington.

Analysts said consumers were clearly retrenching.

But she also argued that it was "a little soon" to conclude that the consumer is retrenching, saying, "We don't want to make too much of one month's numbers."