The economic data for last year, he said, indicate that the odds are better than even that the country would not have tipped into a recession had it not ben for the Iraqi invasion, an event he could not have anticipated.

The obvious point to raise here is that these appointments tend to be for countries not necessarily tipped as tournament winners; success is typically linked to qualifying for major tournaments and then progressing as far as possible.

"And at some point, the aggregation of all those individual tipping points having been reached, it will be, in effect, the country will have tipped."

The country tipped into full scale civil war with the 1978 murder of Pedro Chamorro, who had opposed violence against the regime.

I do think the concept of a tipping point is correct, and at some point, the aggregation of all of those individual tipping points having been reached, it will be in effect the country will have tipped.

Populations on the verge of decline could rise in summer and decline in winter as deaths increase in winter in cold regions, similarly, census dates over too long a time range could show a rise when a country has already tipped into decline.